Archives For Philosophy

The philosophical aspects of safety and risk.

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Or how do we measure the unknown?

The problem is that as our understanding and control of known risks increases, the remaining risk in any system become increasingly dominated by  the ‘unknown‘. The more we demand in integrity for high integrity systems the more we end up in the situation of having to deal with residual risks that are unknown and unknowable. Well at least the day before the accident they are. What we really need is a way to measure, express and reason about deep uncertainty, and by that I don’t mean tools like Pascalian calculus or Bayesian prior belief structures, but a way to measure and judge ontological uncertainty.

Even if we can’t measure ontological uncertainty directly perhaps there are indirect measures? Perhaps we can infer something from the platonic shadows it casts on the wall, so to speak. Nassim Taleb would certainly say no, the unknowability of such events is the central thesis of his Ludic Fallacy after all. But I still think it’s worthwhile thinking about, because while he might be right, he may also be wrong.

*With apologies to Nassim Taleb.

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Just because you can, doesn’t mean you ought

An interesting article by  and  on the moral hazard that the use of drone strikes poses and how in the debate on their use there arises a confusion of the facts with value. To say that drone strikes are effective and near consequence free, at least for the perpetrator, does not equate to the conclusion that they are ethical and that we should carry them out. Nor does the capability to safely attack with focused lethality mean that we will in fact make better ethical decisions. The moral hazard that Kaag and Krep assert is that ease of use can all to easily end up becoming the justification for use. My further prediction is that with the increasing automation and psychological distancing of the kill chain this tendency will inevitably increase. Herman Kahn is probably smiling now, wherever he is.

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On Artificial Intelligence as Ethical Prosthesis

Out here in the grim meat-hook present of Reaper missions and Predator drone strikes we’re already well down track to a future in which decisions as to who lives and who dies are made less and less by human beings, and more and more by automation.

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Toyota ECM (Image source: Barr testimony presentation)

Comparing and contrasting

In 2010 NASA was called in by the National Highway Transport Safety Administration to help in figuring out the reason for reported unintended Toyota Camry accelerations. They subsequently published a report including a dedicated software annex. What’s interesting to me is the different outcome and conclusions of the two reports regarding software.  Continue Reading…

Waaay back in 2002 Chris Holloway wrote a paper that used a fictional civil court case involving the hazardous failure of software to show that much of the expertise and received wisdom of software engineering was, using the standards of the US federal judiciary, junky and at best opinion based.

Rereading the transcripts of Phillip Koopman, and Michael Barr in the 2013 Toyota spaghetti monster case I am struck both by how little things have changed and how far actual state of the industry can be from state of the practice, let alone state of the art. Life recapitulates art I guess, though not in a good way.

When Formal Systems Kill, an interesting paper by Lee Pike and Darren Abramson looking at the automatic formal system property of computers from an ethical perspective. Of course as we all know, the 9000 series has a perfect operational record…

Easter 2014 bus-cycle accident (Image Source: James Brickwood)

The limits of rational-legal authority

One of the underlying and unquestioned aspects of modern western society is that the power of the state is derived from a rational-legal authority, that is in the Weberian sense of a purposive or instrumental rationality in pursuing some end. But what if it isn’t? What if the decisions of the state are more based on belief in how people ought to behave and how things ought to be rather than reality? What, in other words, if the lunatics really are running the asylum?

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