Archives For Philosophy

The philosophical aspects of safety and risk.

MH370 Satellite Image (Image source: AMSA)

MH370 and the problem of privileging hypotheses

The further away we’ve moved from whatever event that initiated the disappearance of MH370, the less entanglement there is between circumstances and the event, and thus the more difficult it is to make legitimate inferences about what happened. In essence the signal-to-noise ratio decreases exponentially as the causal distance from the event increases, thus the best evidence is that which is intimately entwined with what was going on onboard MH370, of less importance is evidence obtained at a distance in time or space.

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Process is no substitute for paying attention

As Weick has pointed out, to manage the unexpected we need to be reliably mindful, not reliably mindless. Obvious as that truism may be, those who invest heavily in plans, procedures, process and policy also end up perpetuating and reinforcing a whole raft of expectations, and thus investing in an organisational culture of mindlessness rather than mindfulness.

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The igloo of uncertainty (Image source: UNEP 2010)

Ethics, uncertainty and decision making

The name of the model made me smile, but this article The Ethics of Uncertainty by TannertElvers and Jandrig argues that where uncertainty exists research should be considered as part of an ethical approach to managing risk.

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Taboo transactions and the safety dilemma Again my thanks goes to Ross Anderson over on the Light Blue Touchpaper blog for the reference, this time to a paper by Alan Fiske  an anthropologist and Philip Tetlock a social psychologist, on what they terms taboo transactions. What they point out is that there are domains of sharing in society which each work on different rules; communal, versus reciprocal obligations for example, or authority versus market. And within each domain we socially ‘transact’ trade-offs between equivalent social goods.

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I was reading a post by Ross Anderson on his dismal experiences at John Lewis, and ran across the term security theatre, I’ve actually heard the term, before, it was orignally coined by Bruce Schneier, but this time it got me thinking about how much activity in the safety field is really nothing more than theatrical devices that give the appearance of achieving safety, but not the reality. From zero harm initiatives to hi-vis vests, from the stylised playbook of public consultation to the use of safety integrity levels that purport to show a system is safe. How much of this adds any real value?

Worse yet, and as with security theatre, an entire industry has grown up around this culture of risk, which in reality amounts to a culture of risk aversion in western society. As I see it risk as a cultural concept is like fire, a dangerous tool and an even more terrible master.

An articulated guess beats an unspoken assumption

Frederick Brooks

A point that Fred Brooks makes in his recent work the Design of Design is that it’s wiser to explicitly make specific assumptions, even if that entails guessing the values, rather than leave the assumption un-stated and vague because ‘we just don’t know’.

Brooks notes that while specific and explicit assumptions may be questioned, implicit and vague ones definitely won’t be. If a critical aspect of your design rests upon such fuzzy unarticulated assumptions, then the results can be dire. Continue Reading…

From Les Hatton, here’s how, in four easy steps:

  1. Insist on using R = F x C in your assessment. This will panic HR (People go into HR to avoid nasty things like multiplication.)
  2. Put “end of universe” as risk number 1 (Rationale: R = F x C. Since the end of the universe has an infinite consequence C, then no matter how small the frequency F, the Risk is also infinite)
  3. Ignore all other risks as insignificant
  4. Wait for call from HR…

A humorous note, amongst many, in an excellent presentation on the fell effect that bureaucracies can have upon the development of safety critical systems. I would add my own small corollary that when you see warning notes on microwaves and hot water services the risk assessment lunatics have taken over the asylum…

Battery post fire (Image source: NTSB)

The NTSB has released it’s interim report on the Boeing 787 JAL battery fire and it appears that Boeing’s initial safety assessment had concluded that the only way in which a battery fire would eventuate was through overcharging. Continue Reading…

787 Lithium Battery (Image Source: JTSB)

But, we tested it? Didn’t we?

Earlier reports of the Boeing 787 lithium battery initial development indicated that Boeing engineers had conducted tests to confirm that a single cell failure would not lead to a cascading thermal runaway amongst the remaining batteries. According to these reports their tests were successful, so what went wrong?

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Just updated the post Why Safety Integrity Levels Are Pseudo-science with additional reference material and links to where it’s available on the web. Oh, and they’re still pseudo-science…