Archives For Scientific Discovery

Process is no substitute for paying attention

As Weick has pointed out, to manage the unexpected we need to be reliably mindful, not reliably mindless. Obvious as that truism may be, those who invest heavily in plans, procedures, process and policy also end up perpetuating and reinforcing a whole raft of expectations, and thus investing in an organisational culture of mindlessness rather than mindfulness.

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An articulated guess beats an unspoken assumption

Frederick Brooks

A point that Fred Brooks makes in his recent work the Design of Design is that it’s wiser to explicitly make specific assumptions, even if that entails guessing the values, rather than leave the assumption un-stated and vague because ‘we just don’t know’.

Brooks notes that while specific and explicit assumptions may be questioned, implicit and vague ones definitely won’t be. If a critical aspect of your design rests upon such fuzzy unarticulated assumptions, then the results can be dire. Continue Reading…

Battery post fire (Image source: NTSB)

The NTSB has released it’s interim report on the Boeing 787 JAL battery fire and it appears that Boeing’s initial safety assessment had concluded that the only way in which a battery fire would eventuate was through overcharging. Continue Reading…

787 Lithium Battery (Image Source: JTSB)

But, we tested it? Didn’t we?

Earlier reports of the Boeing 787 lithium battery initial development indicated that Boeing engineers had conducted tests to confirm that a single cell failure would not lead to a cascading thermal runaway amongst the remaining batteries. According to these reports their tests were successful, so what went wrong?

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Just updated the post Why Safety Integrity Levels Are Pseudo-science with additional reference material and links to where it’s available on the web. Oh, and they’re still pseudo-science…

Did the designers of the japanese seawalls consider all the factors?

In an eerie parallel with the Blayais nuclear power plant flooding incident it appears that the designers of tsunami protection for the Japanese coastal cities and infrastructure hit by the 2011 earthquake did not consider all the combinations of environmental factors that go to set the height of a tsunami.

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Thinking about the unintentional and contra-indicating stall warning signal of AF 447 I was struck by the common themes between AF 447 and the Titanic. In both the design teams designed a vehicle compliant to the regulations of the day. But in both cases an implicit design assumption as to how the system would be operated was invalidated.

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Why taking risk is an inherent part of the human condition

On the 6th of May 1968 Neil Armstrong stepped aboard the Lunar Lander Test Vehicle (LLTV) for a routine training mission. During the flight the vehicle went out of control and crashed with Armstrong ejecting to safety seconds before impact. Continue Reading…

Blayais Plant (Image source: Wikipedia Commons)

What a near miss flooding incident at a French nuclear plant in 1999 and the Fukushima 2012 disaster can tell us about fault tolerance and designing for reactor safety

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A report by the AIA on engine rotor bursts and their expected severity raises questions about the levels of damage sustained by QF 32.

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