And in news just to hand, the first Ebola case is reported in the US. It’ll be very interesting to see what happens next, and how much transmission rate is driven by cultural and socio-economic effects…
Archives For Risk
What is risk, how dow we categorise it and deal with it.
I realise that you are not directly responsible for the repeal of the carbon tax by the current government, and I also realise that we the voting public need to man up and shoulder the responsibility for the government and their actions. I even appreciate that if you did wish to retain the carbon tax as a green surcharge, the current government would undoubtedly act to force your hand.
But really, I have to draw the line at your latest correspondence. Simply stamping the latest bill with “SAVINGS FROM REMOVING THE CARBON TAX” scarcely does the benefits of this legislative windfall justice. You have, I fear, entirely undersold the comprehensive social, moral and economic benefits that accrue through the return of this saving to your customers. I submit therefore for your corporate attention some alternatives slogans:
- “Savings from removing the carbon tax…you’ll pay for it later”
- “Savings from removing the carbon tax…buy a bigger air conditioner, you’ll need it”
- “Savings from removing the carbon tax…we also have a unique coal seam investment opportunity”
- “Savings from removing the carbon tax, invest in climate change!”
- “Savings from removing the carbon tax, look up the word ‘venal’, yep that’s you”
- “Savings from removing the carbon tax, because a bigger flatscreen TV is worth your children’s future”
- “Savings from removing the carbon tax, disinvesting in the future”
So be brave and take advantage of this singular opportunity to fully invest your corporate reputation in the truly wonderful outcomes of this prescient and clear sighted decision by our federal government.
An interesting post by Mike Thicke over at Cloud Chamber on the potential use of prediction markets to predict the location of MH370. Prediction markets integrate ‘diffused’ knowledge using a market mechanism to derive a predicted likelihood, essentially market prices are assigned to various outcomes and are treated as analogs of their likelihood. Market trading then established what the market ‘thinks’ is the value of each outcome. The technique has a long and colourful history, but it does seem to work. As an aside prediction markets are still predicting a No vote in the upcoming referendum on Scottish Independence despite recent polls to the contrary.
Returning to the MH370 saga, if the ATSB is not intending to use a Bayesian search plan then one could in principle crowd source the effort through such a prediction market. One could run the market in a dynamic fashion with the market prices updating as new information comes in from the ongoing search. Any investors out there?
Enshrined in Australia’s current workplace health and safety legislation is the principle of ‘So Far As Is Reasonably Practical’. In essence SFAIRP requires you to eliminate or to reduce risk to a negligible level as is (surprise) reasonably practical. While there’s been a lot of commentary on the increased requirements for diligence (read industry moaning and groaning) there’s been little or no consideration of what is the ‘theory of risk’ that backs this legislative principle and how it shapes the current legislation, let alone whether for good or ill. So I thought I’d take a stab at it. :) Continue Reading…
Finding MH370 is going to be a bitch
The aircraft has gone down in an area which is the undersea equivalent of the eastern slopes of the Rockies, well before anyone mapped them. Add to that a search area of thousands of square kilometres in about an isolated a spot as you can imagine, a search zone interpolated from satellite pings and you can see that it’s going to be tough.
Just received a text from my gas and electricity supplier. Good news! My gas and electricity bills will come down by about 4 and 8% respectively due to the repeal of the carbon tax in Australia. Of course we had to doom the planetary ecosystem and condemn our children to runaway climate change but hey, think of the $550 we get back per year. And, how can it get any better, now we’re also seen as a nation of environmental wreckers. I think I’ll go an invest the money in that AGL Hunter coal seam gas project, y’know thinking global, acting local. Thanks Prime Minister Abbott, thanks!
The limits of rational-legal authority
One of the underlying and unquestioned aspects of modern western society is that the power of the state is derived from a rational-legal authority, that is in the Weberian sense of a purposive or instrumental rationality in pursuing some end. But what if it isn’t? What if the decisions of the state are more based on belief in how people ought to behave and how things ought to be rather than reality? What, in other words, if the lunatics really are running the asylum?