Archives For Risk Perception

As I was asked a question on risk homeostasis at the course I’m teaching, here without further ado is John Adam’s tour de force on The failure of seat belt legislation. Collectively, the group of countries that had not passed seat belt laws experienced a greater decrease than the group that had passed laws. Now John doesn’t directly draw the conclusion, but I will, that the seat belt laws kill more people than they save.

And it gets worse, in 1989 the British Government made seat belt wearing compulsory for children under 14 years old in the rear seats of cars, the result? In the year after there was an increase of almost 10% in the numbers of children killed in rear seats, and of almost 12% in the numbers injured (both above background increases). If not enacted there would be young adults now walking around today enjoying their lives, but of course the legislation was passed and we have to live with the consequences.

Now I could forgive the well intentioned who passed these laws, if when it became apparent that they were having a completely contrary effect they repealed them. But what I can’t forgive is the blind persistence, in practices that clearly kill more than they save. What can we make of this depraved indifference, other than people and organisations will sacrifice almost anything and anyone rather than admit they’re wrong?

I guess we’re all aware of the wave of texting while driving legislation, as well as recent moves in a number of jurisdictions to make the penalties more draconian. And it seems like a reasonable supposition that such legislation would reduce the incidence of accidents doesn’t it?

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The igloo of uncertainty (Image source: UNEP 2010)

Ethics, uncertainty and decision making

The name of the model made me smile, but this article The Ethics of Uncertainty by TannertElvers and Jandrig argues that where uncertainty exists research should be considered as part of an ethical approach to managing risk.

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I was reading a post by Ross Anderson on his dismal experiences at John Lewis, and ran across the term security theatre, I’ve actually heard the term, before, it was orignally coined by Bruce Schneier, but this time it got me thinking about how much activity in the safety field is really nothing more than theatrical devices that give the appearance of achieving safety, but not the reality. From zero harm initiatives to hi-vis vests, from the stylised playbook of public consultation to the use of safety integrity levels that purport to show a system is safe. How much of this adds any real value?

Worse yet, and as with security theatre, an entire industry has grown up around this culture of risk, which in reality amounts to a culture of risk aversion in western society. As I see it risk as a cultural concept is like fire, a dangerous tool and an even more terrible master.

An articulated guess beats an unspoken assumption

Frederick Brooks

A point that Fred Brooks makes in his recent work the Design of Design is that it’s wiser to explicitly make specific assumptions, even if that entails guessing the values, rather than leave the assumption un-stated and vague because ‘we just don’t know’.

Brooks notes that while specific and explicit assumptions may be questioned, implicit and vague ones definitely won’t be. If a critical aspect of your design rests upon such fuzzy unarticulated assumptions, then the results can be dire. Continue Reading…

Cleveland street train overrun (Image source: ATSB)

The ATSB has released it’s preliminary report of it’s investigation into the Cleveland street overrun accident which I covered in an earlier post, and it makes interesting reading.

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I’ve just finished up the working week with a day long Safety Conversations and Observations course conducted by Dr Robert Long of Human Dymensions. A good, actually very good, course with an excellent balance between the theory of risk psychology and the practicalities of successfully carrying out safety conversations. I’d recommend it to any organisation that’s seeking to take their safety culture beyond systems and paperwork. Although he’s not a great fan of engineers. :)