Safety when expressed quantitatively as the probability of a loss over some unit of exposure, is in effect a proportional rate. This is useful as we can compare the performance of different systems or operations when one has of operating hours, and potentially lots of accidents while another has only a few operating hours and therefore fewer accidents. Continue Reading…
Archives For Risk Perception
An interesting post by Mike Thicke over at Cloud Chamber on the potential use of prediction markets to predict the location of MH370. Prediction markets integrate ‘diffused’ knowledge using a market mechanism to derive a predicted likelihood, essentially market prices are assigned to various outcomes and are treated as analogs of their likelihood. Market trading then established what the market ‘thinks’ is the value of each outcome. The technique has a long and colourful history, but it does seem to work. As an aside prediction markets are still predicting a No vote in the upcoming referendum on Scottish Independence despite recent polls to the contrary.
Returning to the MH370 saga, if the ATSB is not intending to use a Bayesian search plan then one could in principle crowd source the effort through such a prediction market. One could run the market in a dynamic fashion with the market prices updating as new information comes in from the ongoing search. Any investors out there?
As I was asked a question on risk homeostasis at the course I’m teaching, here without further ado is John Adam’s tour de force on The failure of seat belt legislation. Collectively, the group of countries that had not passed seat belt laws experienced a greater decrease than the group that had passed laws. Now John doesn’t directly draw the conclusion, but I will, that the seat belt laws kill more people than they save.
And it gets worse, in 1989 the British Government made seat belt wearing compulsory for children under 14 years old in the rear seats of cars, the result? In the year after there was an increase of almost 10% in the numbers of children killed in rear seats, and of almost 12% in the numbers injured (both above background increases). If not enacted there would be young adults now walking around today enjoying their lives, but of course the legislation was passed and we have to live with the consequences.
Now I could forgive the well intentioned who passed these laws, if when it became apparent that they were having a completely contrary effect they repealed them. But what I can’t forgive is the blind persistence, in practices that clearly kill more than they save. What can we make of this depraved indifference, other than people and organisations will sacrifice almost anything and anyone rather than admit they’re wrong?
I was reading a post by Ross Anderson on his dismal experiences at John Lewis, and ran across the term security theatre, I’ve actually heard the term, before, it was orignally coined by Bruce Schneier, but this time it got me thinking about how much activity in the safety field is really nothing more than theatrical devices that give the appearance of achieving safety, but not the reality. From zero harm initiatives to hi-vis vests, from the stylised playbook of public consultation to the use of safety integrity levels that purport to show a system is safe. How much of this adds any real value?
Worse yet, and as with security theatre, an entire industry has grown up around this culture of risk, which in reality amounts to a culture of risk aversion in western society. As I see it risk as a cultural concept is like fire, a dangerous tool and an even more terrible master.