Archives For Safety

The practice of safety engineering in various high consequence industries.

An interesting post by Mike Thicke over at Cloud Chamber on the potential use of prediction markets to predict the location of MH370. Prediction markets integrate ‘diffused’ knowledge using a market mechanism to derive a predicted likelihood, essentially market prices are assigned to various outcomes and are treated as analogs of their likelihood. Market trading then established what the market ‘thinks’ is the value of each outcome. The technique has a long and colourful history, but it does seem to work. As an aside prediction markets are still predicting a No vote in the upcoming referendum on Scottish Independence despite recent polls to the contrary.

Returning to the MH370 saga, if the ATSB is not intending to use a Bayesian search plan then one could in principle crowd source the effort through such a prediction market. One could run the market in a dynamic fashion with the market prices updating as new information comes in from the ongoing search. Any investors out there?

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

Just saw a sound bite of our Prime Minister reiterating that we’ll spare no expense to find MH370. Throwing money is one thing, but I’m kind of hoping that the ATSB will pull it’s finger out of it’s bureaucratic ass and actually apply the best search methods to the search. Unkind? Perhaps, but then maybe the families of the lost deserve the best that we can do…

Enshrined in Australia’s current workplace health and safety legislation is the principle of ‘So Far As Is Reasonably Practical’. In essence SFAIRP requires you to eliminate or to reduce risk to a negligible level as is (surprise) reasonably practical. While there’s been a lot of commentary on the increased requirements for diligence (read industry moaning and groaning) there’s been little or no consideration of what is the ‘theory of risk’ that backs this legislative principle and how it shapes the current legislation, let alone whether for good or ill. So I thought I’d take a stab at it. :) Continue Reading…

Finding MH370

26/08/2014 — 1 Comment

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

Finding MH370 is going to be a bitch

The aircraft has gone down in an area which is the undersea equivalent of the eastern slopes of the Rockies, well before anyone mapped them. Add to that a search area of thousands of square kilometres in about an isolated a spot as you can imagine, a search zone interpolated from satellite pings and you can see that it’s going to be tough.

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On Artificial Intelligence as Ethical Prosthesis

Out here in the grim meat-hook present of Reaper missions and Predator drone strikes we’re already well down track to a future in which decisions as to who lives and who dies are made less and less by human beings, and more and more by automation.

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Waaay back in 2002 Chris Holloway wrote a paper that used a fictional civil court case involving the hazardous failure of software to show that much of the expertise and received wisdom of software engineering was, using the standards of the US federal judiciary, junky and at best opinion based.

Rereading the transcripts of Phillip Koopman, and Michael Barr in the 2013 Toyota spaghetti monster case I am struck both by how little things have changed and how far actual state of the industry can be from state of the practice, let alone state of the art. Life recapitulates art I guess, though not in a good way.

Tweedle Dum and Dee (Image source: Wikipedia Commons)

Revisiting the Knight, Leveson experiments

In the through the looking glass world of high integrity systems, the use of N-version programming is often touted as a means to achieve extremely lower failure rates without extensive V&V, due to the postulated independence of failure in independently developed software. Unfortunately this is hockum, as Knight and Leveson amply demonstrated with their N version experiments, but there may actually be advantages to N versioning, although not quite what the proponents of it originally expected.

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