Archives For biases

So why is one in a million an acceptable risk? The answer may be simpler than we think.

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So, a year on from the Black Saturday fires and the royal commission established in their aftermath is working it’s way to a conclusion. While the commission has certainly been busy, I guess you could say that I was left unsatisfied by the recommendations.

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From the BEA’s second interim report (BEA 2009) we now know that AF 447 was flown into the water in a deep stall. Given the training and experience of the flight crew how did they end up in such a situation?

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Fire has been an integral part of the Australian ecosystem for tens of thousands of years. Both the landscape and it’s native inhabitants have adapted to this periodic cycle of fire and regeneration. These fires are not bolts from the blue, they occur regularly and predictably, yet modern Australians seem to have difficulty understanding that their land will burn, regularly, and sometimes catastrophically.

So why do we studiously avoid serious consideration of the hazards of living in a country that regularly produces firestorms? Why, in the time of fire, do we go through the same cycle of shock, recrimination, exhortations to do better, diminishing interest and finally forgetfulness?

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