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Just added a modified version of the venerable subjective 882 hazard risk matrix to my useful stuff page in which I fix a few issues that have bugged me about that particular tool, see Risk and the Matrix for a fuller discussion of the problems with risk matrices.

For those of you with a strong interest in such I’ve translated the matrix into cartesian coordinates, revised the risk zone and definitions to make the matrix ‘De Moivre theorem’ compliant (and a touch more conservative), added the AIAA’s combinatorial probability thresholds, introduced a calibration point and added the ALARP principal.

Who knows maybe the US DoD will pick it up…but probably not. :)

MIL-STD-882 Hazard Risk Matrix (Modified).

 

Matrix (Image source: The Matrix film)

Just updated my post on Decision Theory and the Risk Matrix with some material on the semiotics of colour and the advantages, as well as disadvantages, that it’s use in constructing a risk matrix brings.

Matrix (Image source: The Matrix film)

Why the risk matrix?

For new systems we generally do not have statistical data on accidents, and high consequence events are, we hope, quite rare leaving us with a paucity of information. So we usually end up basing any risk assessment upon low base rate data, and having to fall back upon some form of subjective (and qualitative) method of risk assessment.

Risk matrices were developed to guide such qualitative risk assessments and decision making, and the form of these matrices is based on a mix of decision and classical risk theory. The matrix is widely described in safety and risk literature and has become one of the less questioned staples of risk management.

Despite this there are plenty of poorly constructed and ill thought out risk matrices out there, in both the literature and standards, and many users remain unaware of the degree of epistemic uncertainty that the use of a risk matrix introduces. So this post attempts to establish some basic principles of construction as an aid to improving the state of practice and understanding.

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