On being boundedly rational about risk


President Kennedys cuban missile crisis cabinet

In the real world we rarely have the luxury of time and complete information to make decisions.

In a series of occasional posts on this blog, I’ve discussed some of the pitfalls of heuristics based decision making as well as the risks associated with decision making on incomplete information or in an environment of time pressure. As the difference between the Kennedy cabinet’s performance during the Bay of Pigs and subsequent Cuban missile crisis indicates it is possible to learn how to deal with our own individual and collective cognitive limitations, even under circumstances of high uncertainty, psychological stress and time pressure.

As an aid to the reader, here’s the consolidated list of posts: