The binomial distribution and the virus

13/10/2014 — Leave a comment

An interesting article in Forbes on human error in a very unforgiving environment, i.e. treating ebola patients, and an excellent use of basic statistics to prove that cumulative risk tends to do just that, accumulate. As the number of patients being treated in the west is pretty low at the moment it also gives a good indication of just how infectious Ebola is. One might also infer that the western medical establishment is not quite so smart as it thought it was, at least when it comes to treating the big E safely.

Of course the moment of international zen in the whole story had to be the comment by the head of the CDC Dr Friedan, that and I quote “clearly there was a breach in protocol”, a perfect example of affirming the consequent. As James Reason pointed out years ago there are two ways of dealing with human error, so I guess we know where the head of the CDC stands on that question. 🙂

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