On the difficulty of counting black swans*

11/12/2014 — 2 Comments

4blackswans

Or how do we measure the unknown?

The problem is that as our understanding and control of known risks increases, the remaining risk in any system become increasingly dominated by  the ‘unknown‘. The higher the integrity of our systems the more uncertainty we have over the unknown and unknowable residual risk. What we need is a way to measure, express and reason about such deep uncertainty, and I don’t mean tools like Pascalian calculus or Bayesian prior belief structures, but a way to measure and judge ontological uncertainty.

Even if we can’t measure ontological uncertainty directly perhaps there are indirect measures? Perhaps there’s a way to infer something from the platonic shadow that such uncertainty casts on the wall, so to speak. Nassim Taleb would say no, the unknowability of such events is the central thesis of his Ludic Fallacy after all. But I still think it’s worthwhile exploring, because while he might be right, he may also be wrong.

*With apologies to Nassim Taleb.

2 responses to On the difficulty of counting black swans*

  1. 

    As I was walking up the stair
    I saw a man who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    Oh how I wish he’d go away

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