MH370, the search continues

30/07/2015 — 3 Comments
Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island, is that could be flap of #MH370 ? Credit: reunion 1ere

Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island (Image source: reunion 1ere)


Why this bit of wreckage is unlikely to affect the outcome of the MH370 search

If this really is a flaperon from MH370 then it’s good news in a way because we could use wind and current data for the Indian ocean to determine where it might have gone into the water. That in turn could be used to update a probability map of where we think that MH370 went down, by adjusting our priors in the Bayesian search strategy. Thereby ensuring that all the information we have is fruitfully integrated into our search strategy.

Well… perhaps it could, if the ATSB were actually applying a Bayesian search strategy, but apparently they’re not. So the ATSB is unlikely to get the most out of this piece of evidence and the only real upside that I see to this is that it should shutdown most of the conspiracy nut jobs who reckoned MH370 had been spirited away to North Korea or some such. 🙂

3 responses to MH370, the search continues

  1. 

    Conspiracy nutjobs don’t base their theories on facts. Providing additional facts will only prompt them to make enhancements to the story line. If they believe that the plane was landed in some remote location for some nefarious purpose, they will quickly propose that the pirates removed the flaperon and put it in the water for a year, tethered to some convenient pier, and then smuggled it to the place where they wanted it found.

    The gullible have boundless faith in the genius of their enemies.

  2. 
    Emma Vickers 07/09/2015 at 12:42 am

    actually they are now, I missed t his presentation at the time:
    https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/portal/event/bayesian-methods-and-search-mh370

    • 
      Matthew Squair 07/09/2015 at 12:51 am

      Yes, I saw that work but that’s only half the effort, the other is a map of bottom conditions to generate a likelihood of finding the wreckage if you were looking.

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