Archives For Stochastic processes

Monkey-typing

Safety cases and that room full of monkeys

Back in 1943, the French mathematician Émile Borel published a book titled Les probabilités et la vie, in which he stated what has come to be called Borel’s law which can be paraphrased as, “Events with a sufficiently small probability never occur.” Continue Reading…


JAL JA829J Fire (Image Source: Stephan Savoia AP Photo)

Boeing’s Dreamliner program runs into trouble with lithium ion batteries

Lithium batteries performance in providing lightweight, low volume power storage has made them a ubiquitous part of modern consumer life. And high power density also makes them attractive in applications, such as aerospace, where weight and space are at a premium. Unfortunately lithium batteries are also very unforgiving if operated outside their safe operating envelope and can fail in a spectacularly energetic fashion called a thermal runaway (1), as occurred in the recent JAL and ANA 787 incidents.

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So what do gambling, thermodynamics and risk all have in common?

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Why we may be carrying an order of magnitude greater risk from aircraft engine rotor bursts than we thought

One of the ‘implicit’ conclusions of the 2010 AIA study on the threat posed by jet engine rotor bursts was that the fleet of modern aircraft designed to meet FAA circular AC 20-128A also met the FAA established safety targets of a 1 in 20 likelihood of a catastrophic loss, in the event of a engine rotor burst.

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