Archives For Risk Assessment

We are hectored on an almost daily basis as to the imminent threat of islamic extremism and how we must respond firmly to this real and present danger. Indeed we have proceeded far enough along the escalation of response ladder that this, presumably existential threat, is now being used to justify talk of internment without trial. So what is the probability that if you were murdered, the murderer would be an immigrant terrorist?

In NSW in 2014 there were 86 homicides, of these 1 was directly related to the act of a islamist terrorist (1). So there’s a 1 in 86 chance that in that year if you were murdered it was at the hands of a mentally disturbed asylum seeker (2). Hmm sounds risky, but is it? Well not really, there was approximately 2.5 million people in NSW in 2014 so the likelihood of being murdered (in that year) is in the first instance 3.44e-5. If we multiply this by the likelihood that it was at the hands of a `terrorist’ then we end up with 4e-7 or 4 chances in 10 million. If we consider subsequent and prior years where nothing happened that likelihood becomes even smaller.

Yet based on this 4 in 10 million chance for one year the NSW government intends to build a super-max 2 prison in NSW, and fill it with ‘terrorists’ while the Federal government enacts more anti-terrorism laws that take us down the road to the surveillance state, if we’re not already there yet. The glaring difference between the perception of risk and the actuality is one that our political class seem oblivious to (3).

Notes

1. One death during the Lindt chocolate siege that could be directly attributed to the `terrorist’.

2. Sought and granted in 2001 by the Liberal National Party government.

3. An action that also ignores the role of prisons in converting inmates to Islam as a route to recruiting their criminal, anti-social and violent sub-populations in the service of Sunni extremists.

Crowely (Image source: Warner Bro's TV)

The psychological basis of uncertainty

There’s a famous psychological experiment conducted by Ellsberg, called eponymously the Ellsberg paradox, in which he showed that people overwhelmingly prefer a betting scenario in which the probabilities are known, rather than one in which the odds are actually ambiguous, even if the potential for winning might be greater.  Continue Reading…

National-Terrorism-Threat-Advisory-System

With much pomp and circumstance the attorney general and our top state security mandarin’s have rolled out the brand new threat level advisory system. Congrats to us, we are now the proud owners of a five runged ladder of terror. There’s just one small teeny tiny insignificant problem, it just doesn’t work. Yep that’s right, as a tool for communicating it’s completely void of meaning, useless in fact, a hopelessly vacuous piece of security theatre.

You see the levels of this scale are based on likelihood. But whoever designed the scale forgot to include over what duration they were estimating the likelihood. And without that duration it’s just a meaningless list of words. 

Here’s how likelihood works. Say you ask me whether it’s likely to rain tomorrow, I say ‘unlikely’, now ask me whether it will rain in the next week, well that’s a bit more likely isn’t it? OK, so next you ask me whether it’ll rain in the next year? Well unless you live in Alice Springs the answer is going to be even more likely, maybe almost certain isn’t it? So you can see that the duration we’re thinking of affects the likelihood we come up with because it’s a cumulative measure. 

Now ask me whether a terrorist threat was going to happen tomorrow? I’d probably say it was so unlikely that it was, ‘Not expected’. But if you asked me whether one might occur in the next year I’d say (as we’re accumulating exposure) it’d be more likely, maybe even ‘Probable’ while if the question was asked about a decade of exposure I’d almost certainly say it was,  ‘Certain’. So you see how a scale without a duration means absolutely nothing, in fact it’s much worse than nothing, it actually causes misunderstanding because I may be thinking in threats across the next year, while you may be thinking about threats occurring in the next month. So it actually communicates negative information.

And this took years of consideration according to the Attorney General, man we are governed by second raters. Puts head in hands. 

Two_reactors

A tale of another two reactors

There’s been much debate over the years as whether various tolerance of risk approaches actually satisfy the legal principle of reasonable practicability. But there hasn’t to my mind been much consideration of the value of simply adopting the legalistic approach in situations when we have a high degree of uncertainty regarding the likelihood of adverse events. In such circumstances basing our decisions upon what can turn out to be very unreliable estimates of risk can have extremely unfortunate consequences. Continue Reading…

Sharks (Image source: Darren Pateman)

Practical risk management, or why I love living in Australia

We’re into the ninth day of closed beaches here with two large great whites spotted ‘patrolling our shores’, whatever that means. Of course in Australia closed doesn’t actually mean the beaches are padlocked, not yet anyway. We just put a sign up and people can make their own minds up as to whether they wish to run the risk of being bitten. In my books a sensible approach to the issue, one that balances societal responsibility with personal freedom. I mean it’s not like they’re as dangerous as bicycles Continue Reading…

NASA safety handbook cover

Way, way back in 2011 NASA published the first volume of their planned two volume epic on system safety titled strangely enough “NASA System Safety Handbook Volume 1, System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation“, catchy eh?

Continue Reading…

I guess we’re all aware of the wave of texting while driving legislation, as well as recent moves in a number of jurisdictions to make the penalties more draconian. And it seems like a reasonable supposition that such legislation would reduce the incidence of accidents doesn’t it?

Continue Reading…