Archives For Aerospace Safety

Interesting documentary on SBS about the Germanwings tragedy, if you want a deeper insight see my post on the dirty little secret of civilian aviation. By the way, the two person rule only works if both those people are alive.

What burns in Vegas…

Ladies and gentlemen you need to leave, like leave your luggage!

This has been another moment of aircraft evacuation Zen.

Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island, is that could be flap of #MH370 ? Credit: reunion 1ere

Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island (Image source: reunion 1ere)

Why this bit of wreckage is unlikely to affect the outcome of the MH370 search

If this really is a flaperon from MH370 then it’s good news in a way because we could use wind and current data for the Indian ocean to determine where it might have gone into the water. That in turn could be used to update a probability map of where we think that MH370 went down, by adjusting our priors in the Bayesian search strategy. Thereby ensuring that all the information we have is fruitfully integrated into our search strategy.

Well… perhaps it could, if the ATSB were actually applying a Bayesian search strategy, but apparently they’re not. So the ATSB is unlikely to get the most out of this piece of evidence and the only real upside that I see to this is that it should shutdown most of the conspiracy nut jobs who reckoned MH370 had been spirited away to North Korea or some such. 🙂

In celebration of upgrading the site to WP Premium here’s some gratuitous eye candy 🙂

A little more seriously, PIO is one of those problems that, contrary to what the name might imply, requires one to treat the aircraft and pilot as a single control system.

The enigmatic face of HALThe problem of people

The Hal effect, named after the eponymous anti-hero of Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke’s film 2001, is the tendency for designers to implicitly embed their cultural biases into automation. While such biases are undoubtedly a very uncertain guide it might also be worthwhile to look at the 2001 Odyssey mission from Hal’s perspective for a moment. Continue Reading…

Comet (Image source: Public domain)

Amidst all the soul searching, and pontificating about how to deal with the problem of pilot’s ‘suiciding by airliner’, you are unlikely to find any real consideration of how we have arrived at this pass. There is as it turns out a simple one word answer, and that word is efficiency. back when airliner’s first started to fly  they needed a big aircrew, for example  on the Comet airliner you’d find a pilot, copilot, navigator and flight engineer. Now while that’s a lot of manpower to pay for it did possess one hidden advantage, and that was with a crew size greater than three it’s very, very difficult (OK effectively impossible) for any one member of the flight crew to attempt to commit suicide. If you think I exaggerate then go see if there has ever been a successful suicide by airliner where there were three or more aircrew in the cockpit. Nope, none. But, the aviation industry is one driven by cost. Each new generation of aircraft needs to be cheaper to operate which means that the airlines and airline manufacturers are locked in a ruthless evolutionary arms race to do more with less. One of the easiest ways to reduce operating costs is to reduce the number of aircrew needed to fly the big jets. Fewer aircrew, greater automation is an equation that delivers more efficient operations. And before you the traveller get too judgemental about all this just remember that the demand for cost reduction is in turn driven by our expectation as consumers that airlines can provide cheap mass airfare for the common man.

So we’ve seen the number of aircrew slowly reduce over the years, first the navigator went and then the flight engineer until we finally arrived at our current standard two man flight crew. There’s just one small problem with this, if one of those pilots wants to dispose of the other there’s not a whole lot that can be done to prevent it. In our relentless pursuit of efficiency we have inadvertently eliminated a safety margin that we didn’t even realise was there. So what can we really do about it? Well the simple ‘we know it works’ answer is to go back to three crew in the cockpit, which effectively eliminates the hazard, of course that’s also a solution that’s unlikely to be taken up. In the absence of going back to three man crews well, we get what we’re currently getting, aspirational statements about better management of stress and depression in aircrew, or the use of cabin crew to enforce no go alone rules. But when that cockpit door is closed it’s still one on one, and all such measures do in the final analysis is reduce the likelihood of the hazard, by some hard to quantify amount, they don’t eliminate it. As long as we fly two man crews behind armoured doors unfortunately the possibility and therefore the hazard remains.

Happy flying 🙂

Germanwings crash