The continuum of uncertainty
What do an eighteenth century mathematician and a twentieth century US Secretary of Defence have to do with engineering and risk? The answer is that both thought about uncertainty and risk, and the differing definitions that they arrived at neatly illustrate that there is more to the concept of risk than just likelihood multiplied by consequence. Which in turn has significant implications for engineering risk management.
Editorial note. I’ve pretty much completely revised this post since the original, hope you like it