A Trump presidency in the wings who’d have thought! And what a total shock it was to all those pollsters, commentators and apparatchiks who are now trying to explain why they got it so wrong. All of which is a textbook example of what students of risk theory call a Black Swan event. Continue Reading…
Archives For Black Swans
Or how do we measure the unknown?
The problem is that as our understanding and control of known risks increases, the remaining risk in any system become increasingly dominated by the ‘unknown‘. The higher the integrity of our systems the more uncertainty we have over the unknown and unknowable residual risk. What we need is a way to measure, express and reason about such deep uncertainty, and I don’t mean tools like Pascalian calculus or Bayesian prior belief structures, but a way to measure and judge ontological uncertainty.
Even if we can’t measure ontological uncertainty directly perhaps there are indirect measures? Perhaps there’s a way to infer something from the platonic shadow that such uncertainty casts on the wall, so to speak. Nassim Taleb would say no, the unknowability of such events is the central thesis of his Ludic Fallacy after all. But I still think it’s worthwhile exploring, because while he might be right, he may also be wrong.
*With apologies to Nassim Taleb.
Way, way back in 2011 NASA published the first volume of their planned two volume epic on system safety titled strangely enough “NASA System Safety Handbook Volume 1, System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation“, catchy eh?