Archives For climate change

Black Saturday fires (Image source: ABC)

With the NSW Rural Fire Service fighting more than 50 fires across the state and the unprecedented hellish conditions set to deteriorate even further with the arrival of strong winds the question of the day is, exactly how bad could this get? The answer is unfortunately, a whole lot worse. That’s because we have difficulty as human beings in thinking about and dealing with extreme events… To quote from a post I wrote in the aftermath of the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday fires.

So how unthinkable could it get? The likelihood of a fire versus it’s severity can be credibly modelled as a power law a particular type of heavy tailed distribution (Clauset et al. 2007). This means that extreme events in the tail of the distribution are far more likely than predicted by a gaussian (the classic bell curve) distribution. So while a mega fire ten times the size of the Black Saturday fires is far less likely it is not completely improbable as our intuitive availability heuristic would indicate. In fact it’s much worse than we might think, in heavy tail distributions you need to apply what’s called the mean excess heuristic which really translates to the next worst event is almost always going to be much worse…

So how did we get to this?  Well simply put the extreme weather we’ve been experiencing is a tangible, current day effect of climate change. Climate change is not something we can leave to our children to really worry about, it’s happening now. That half a degree rise in global temperature? Well it turns out it supercharges the heavy tail of bushfire severity. Putting it even more simply it look’s like we’ve been twisting the dragon’s tail and now it’s woken up…

Meltwater river Greenland icecap (Image source: Ian Jouhgin)

Meme’s, media and drug dealer’s

In honour of our Prime Minister’s use of the drug dealer’s argument to justify (at least to himself) why it’s OK for Australia to continue to sell coal, when we know we really have to stop, here’s an update of a piece I wrote on the role of the media in propagating denialist meme’s. Enjoy, there’s even a public heath tip at the end.

PS. You can find Part I and II of the series here.

🙂

Global temperature 2050

Just received a text from my gas and electricity supplier. Good news! My gas and electricity bills will come down by about 4 and 8% respectively due to the repeal of the carbon tax in Australia. Of course we had to doom the planetary ecosystem and condemn our children to runaway climate change but hey, think of the $550 we get back per year. And, how can it get any better, now we’re also seen as a nation of environmental wreckers. I think I’ll go an invest the money in that AGL Hunter coal seam gas project, y’know thinking global, acting local. Thanks Prime Minister Abbott, thanks!

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The above info graphic courtesy of Jeff Masters Wunderblog blog says it all, 6 out of the 13 most destructive superstorms have occurred after 1998.

Black Saturday fires (Image source: ABC)

The consensus project: Yes there is one on climate change

Despite what you may see in the media, yes there is an overwhelming consensus on climate change (it’s happening), what the cause is (our use of fossil fuels) and what we can do about it (a whole bunch of things with today’s tech). Here’s the link to the projects web page, neat info graphics…enjoy.

Oh and if like me you live in Australia I’d start getting used to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and bush-fires, the only uncertainty left is whether we can put the brakes on in time to prevent a complete catastrophe.

The Newcastle 2007 storm

In the first part of this post on Drew Warne Smith and James Madden’s article on climate change, The science is in on sea-level rise: 1.7 mm, I dealt with the factual basis of their argument.

The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it.

George Bernard Shaw

In this second part I want to spend some time looking at both the logical and psychological tricks of their argument (such as it is) and how the authors use these fallacious elements to sway the unwary or uneducated readership. Note that I have based the taxonomy of argument upon that proposed by Thoulesss (1934) (1).

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If you read through the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports you’ll strike qualitative phrases such as’likely’ and ‘high confidence’ to describe uncertainty. But is there a credible basis for these terms?

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