Archives For cognitive bias

Fighter Cockpit Rear View Mirror

What the economic theory of sunk costs tells us about plan continuation bias

Plan continuation bias is a recognised and subtle cognitive bias that tends to force the continuation of an existing plan or course of action even in the face of changing conditions. In the field of aerospace it has been recognised as a significant causal factor in accidents, with a 2004 NASA study finding that in 9 out of the 19 accidents studied aircrew exhibited this behavioural bias. One explanation of this behaviour may be a version of the well known ‘sunk cost‘ economic heuristic.

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Disappointingly the Black Saturday royal commission report makes no mention of the effect of cognitive biases upon making a ‘stay or go’ decision, instead assuming that such decisions are made in a completely rationa fashion. As Black Saturday and other disasters show this is rarely the case.

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