Archives For MH370

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

After millions of dollars and years of effort the ATSB has suspended it’s search for the wreck of MH370. There’s some bureaucratic weasel words, but we are done people. Of course had the ATSB applied Bayesian search techniques, as the USN did in the successful search for it’s missing  USS Scorpion, we might actually know where it is.

MH 370 search vessel (Image source: ATSB)

Once more with feeling

Sonar vessels searching for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 in the southern Indian Ocean may have missed the jet, the ATSB’s Chief Commissioner Martin Dolan has told News Online. he went on to point out the uncertainties involved, the difficulty of terrain that could mask the signature of wreckage and that therefore problematic areas would need to be re-surveyed. Despite all that the Commissioner was confident that the wreckage site would be found by June. Me I’m not so sure.

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Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island, is that could be flap of #MH370 ? Credit: reunion 1ere

Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island (Image source: reunion 1ere)


Why this bit of wreckage is unlikely to affect the outcome of the MH370 search

If this really is a flaperon from MH370 then it’s good news in a way because we could use wind and current data for the Indian ocean to determine where it might have gone into the water. That in turn could be used to update a probability map of where we think that MH370 went down, by adjusting our priors in the Bayesian search strategy. Thereby ensuring that all the information we have is fruitfully integrated into our search strategy.

Well… perhaps it could, if the ATSB were actually applying a Bayesian search strategy, but apparently they’re not. So the ATSB is unlikely to get the most out of this piece of evidence and the only real upside that I see to this is that it should shutdown most of the conspiracy nut jobs who reckoned MH370 had been spirited away to North Korea or some such. 🙂

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

Bayes and the search for MH370

We are now approximately 60% of the way through searching the MH370 search area, and so far nothing. Which is unfortunate because as the search goes on the cost continues to go up for the taxpayer (and yes I am one of those). What’s more unfortunate, and not a little annoying, is that that through all this the ATSB continues to stonily ignore the use of a powerful search technique that’s been used to find everything from lost nuclear submarines to the wreckage of passenger aircraft.  Continue Reading…

An interesting post by Mike Thicke over at Cloud Chamber on the potential use of prediction markets to predict the location of MH370. Prediction markets integrate ‘diffused’ knowledge using a market mechanism to derive a predicted likelihood, essentially market prices are assigned to various outcomes and are treated as analogs of their likelihood. Market trading then established what the market ‘thinks’ is the value of each outcome. The technique has a long and colourful history, but it does seem to work. As an aside prediction markets are still predicting a No vote in the upcoming referendum on Scottish Independence despite recent polls to the contrary.

Returning to the MH370 saga, if the ATSB is not intending to use a Bayesian search plan then one could in principle crowd source the effort through such a prediction market. One could run the market in a dynamic fashion with the market prices updating as new information comes in from the ongoing search. Any investors out there?

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

Just saw a sound bite of our Prime Minister reiterating that we’ll spare no expense to find MH370. Throwing money is one thing, but I’m kind of hoping that the ATSB will pull it’s finger out of it’s bureaucratic ass and actually apply the best search methods to the search. Unkind? Perhaps, but then maybe the families of the lost deserve the best that we can do…

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Garbage, lots and lots of garbage. I guess if nothing else this shows what a giant waste dump we’ve turned our oceans into.

Hopefully the sub-search will have more luck, but with the search box as big as it is, and the undersea terrain as mountainous as it is, it’s a bit like searching from the air for the glint of a needle that’s been thrown out of plane somewhere over the Rockies…when you don’t even have a good map of the Rockies.

MH370 Satellite Image (Image source: AMSA)

MH370 and privileging hypotheses

The further away we’ve moved from whatever event that initiated the disappearance of MH370, the less entanglement there is between circumstances and the event, and thus the more difficult it is to make legitimate inferences about what happened. In essence the signal-to-noise ratio decreases exponentially as the causal distance from the event increases, thus the best evidence is that which is intimately entwined with what was going on onboard MH370 and of lesser importance is that evidence obtained at greater distances in time or space.

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MH370 Satellite Image (Image source: AMSA)

While once again the media has whipped itself into a frenzy of anticipation over the objects sighted in the southern Indian ocean we should all be realistic about the likelihood of finding wreckage from MH370.

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Continuing airsearch (Image source: Shen Ling REX)

“Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.”

If anything teaches us that the modern media is for the most part bat-shit crazy the continuing whirlwind of speculation does so. Even the usually staid Wall Street Journal has got into the act with speculative reports that MH370 may have flown on for hours under the control of persons or persons unknown… sigh.

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After the disappearance of MH370 without trace, I’d point out, again, that just as in the case of the AF447, disaster had either floating black boxes or even just a cheap and cheerful locator buoy been fitted we would at least have something to work with (1). But apparently this is simply not a priority with the FAA or JAA. I’d note that ships have been traditionally fitted with barometrically released beacon transmitters, thereby ensuring that their release from a sinking ship.

Undoubtedly we’ll go through the same regulatory minuet of looking at design concepts provided by one or more of the major equipment suppliers whose designs will, no surprise, also be complex, expensive and painful to retrofit thereby giving the regulator the perfect out to shelve the issue. At least until the next aircraft disappears. Let’s chalk it up as another great example of regulatory blindness, which I’m afraid is cold comfort to the relatives of those onboard MH370.

Notes

1. Depending on the jurisdiction, modern airliners do carry different types and numbers of Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT) beacons.These are either fixed to the airframe or need to be deployed by the crew, meaning  that in anything other than a perfect crash landing at sea they end up on the bottom with the aircraft. Sonar pingers attached to the ‘black box’ flight data and cockpit voice recorders can provide an underwater signal, but their distance is limited, about a thousand metres slant range or so.