Archives For MH370

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

After millions of dollars and years of effort the ATSB has suspended it’s search for the wreck of MH370. There’s some bureaucratic weasel words, but we are done people. Of course had the ATSB applied Bayesian search techniques, as the USN did in the successful search for it’s missing  USS Scorpion, we might actually know where it is.

MH 370 search vessel (Image source: ATSB)

Once more with feeling

Sonar vessels searching for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 in the southern Indian Ocean may have missed the jet, the ATSB’s Chief Commissioner Martin Dolan has told News Online. he went on to point out the uncertainties involved, the difficulty of terrain that could mask the signature of wreckage and that therefore problematic areas would need to be re-surveyed. Despite all that the Commissioner was confident that the wreckage site would be found by June. Me I’m not so sure.

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Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island, is that could be flap of #MH370 ? Credit: reunion 1ere

Piece of wing found on La Réunion Island (Image source: reunion 1ere)


Why this bit of wreckage is unlikely to affect the outcome of the MH370 search

If this really is a flaperon from MH370 then it’s good news in a way because we could use wind and current data for the Indian ocean to determine where it might have gone into the water. That in turn could be used to update a probability map of where we think that MH370 went down, by adjusting our priors in the Bayesian search strategy. Thereby ensuring that all the information we have is fruitfully integrated into our search strategy.

Well… perhaps it could, if the ATSB were actually applying a Bayesian search strategy, but apparently they’re not. So the ATSB is unlikely to get the most out of this piece of evidence and the only real upside that I see to this is that it should shutdown most of the conspiracy nut jobs who reckoned MH370 had been spirited away to North Korea or some such. 🙂

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

Bayes and the search for MH370

We are now approximately 60% of the way through searching the MH370 search area, and so far nothing. Which is unfortunate because as the search goes on the cost continues to go up for the taxpayer (and yes I am one of those). What’s more unfortunate, and not a little annoying, is that that through all this the ATSB continues to stonily ignore the use of a powerful search technique that’s been used to find everything from lost nuclear submarines to the wreckage of passenger aircraft.  Continue Reading…

An interesting post by Mike Thicke over at Cloud Chamber on the potential use of prediction markets to predict the location of MH370. Prediction markets integrate ‘diffused’ knowledge using a market mechanism to derive a predicted likelihood, essentially market prices are assigned to various outcomes and are treated as analogs of their likelihood. Market trading then established what the market ‘thinks’ is the value of each outcome. The technique has a long and colourful history, but it does seem to work. As an aside prediction markets are still predicting a No vote in the upcoming referendum on Scottish Independence despite recent polls to the contrary.

Returning to the MH370 saga, if the ATSB is not intending to use a Bayesian search plan then one could in principle crowd source the effort through such a prediction market. One could run the market in a dynamic fashion with the market prices updating as new information comes in from the ongoing search. Any investors out there?

MH370 underwater search area map (Image source- Australian Govt)

Just saw a sound bite of our Prime Minister reiterating that we’ll spare no expense to find MH370. Throwing money is one thing, but I’m kind of hoping that the ATSB will pull it’s finger out of it’s bureaucratic ass and actually apply the best search methods to the search. Unkind? Perhaps, but then maybe the families of the lost deserve the best that we can do…

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Garbage, lots and lots of garbage. I guess if nothing else this shows what a giant waste dump we’ve turned our oceans into.

Hopefully the sub-search will have more luck, but with the search box as big as it is, and the undersea terrain as mountainous as it is, it’s a bit like searching from the air for the glint of a needle that’s been thrown out of plane somewhere over the Rockies…when you don’t even have a good map of the Rockies.