Archives For probability

Why probability is not corroboration

The IEC’s 61508 standard on functional safety  assigns a series of Safety Integrity Levels (SIL) that correlate to the achievement of specific hazardous failure rates. Unfortunately this definition of SILs, that ties SILs to a probabilistic metric of failure, contains a fatal flaw.

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The IPCC issued a set of lead author guidance notes on how to describe uncertainty prior to the fourth IPCC assessment. In it the IPCC laid out a methodology on how to deal with various classes of uncertainty. Unforunately the IPCC guidance also fell into a fatal trap.

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